Climate Risk Profile: Eastern Africa

Countries throughout Eastern Africa are faced with the worst droughts in decades. Millions of people across the region are experiencing acute food insecurity, dire water shortages and displacement, while existing tensions in the conflict-prone region are simultaneously growing. These impacts are expected to worsen in the future, due to climate-change induced temperature rise and increasingly uncertain precipitation trends.

The climate models presented in the Climate Risk Profile: Eastern Africa project that under a medium to high emissions scenario, air temperatures will rise by up to 3.9 ^o C by 2080, compared to pre-industrial levels. Northern Sudan and northern Kenya will experience the highest overall temperatures. Due to future population growth, water availability will drastically decline, and projected temperature changes will result in a higher number of very hot days, especially in Somalia, eastern Ethiopia and north-eastern Kenya. This will negatively affect people’s ability to work and live, and is likely to have drastic consequences on the health and wellbeing of people living in Eastern Africa. Meanwhile, historic intra- and inter-state violent conflicts, terrorism and extremism are further increasing the vulnerability of climate-impacted populations, undermining resilience and efforts made towards sustainable peace.

Faced with such immediate threats to people’s lives, trustworthy state-of-the-art climate impact data, as presented in the Climate Risk Profile: Eastern Africa, is integral to enhance capacity for action and improve operational responses towards a more climate-resilient and peaceful future. This comprehensive climate risk analysis must be complimented with localised human security data and intersectional conflict analysis in order to effectively inform climate-security risk assessments and support risk-informed decision making in the region.  

For example, this data was used by Weathering Risk to create climate-security risk informed food systems programming in the Horn of Africa in collaboration with the World Food Programme (WFP). The climate-impact data presented in the Climate Risk Profile for Eastern Africa informed case studies that gathered new insights on the interlinkages between climate and environmental stress, livelihood and food security, and peace and stability in Kenya, the West Nile region in Uganda, and the Somali region in Ethiopia. As part of this work, Weathering Risk and WFP collaborated to improve understanding of how climate-related security risks affect food systems, livelihoods and WFP’s mission and mandate in the region.

The climate projections presented in the Climate Risk Profile for Eastern Africa are the product of a collaboration between Weathering Risk and the AGRICA project from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). They draw on the data and modelling work done by PIK’s ISIMIP project.

Disclaimer: The Climate Risk Profile for Eastern Africa was originally published by PIK. All rights reserved.